Belarus is set for a presidential election on Sunday, with five candidates on the ballot but no real contest. Alexander Lukashenko, in power since 1994, is expected to secure another five-year term, a result the exiled opposition labels a sham. Opposition leaders are urging citizens to reject all candidates in protest.
Lukashenko, 70, has avoided campaigning, claiming his leadership leaves no time for electioneering. His decades-long grip on power has weathered mass protests, international condemnation, and allegations of election fraud, notably in 2020 when Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed victory was stolen. Security forces suppressed dissent, jailing opposition leaders and detaining thousands of protesters.
With independent media banned and around 1,250 political prisoners, according to rights group Viasna, opposition voices struggle to resonate. Survival, not politics, dominates public priorities, says Ivan Kravtsov, an exiled opposition council secretary. Critics argue the four alternative candidates lack genuine competition against Lukashenko.
Lukashenko’s balancing act between Russia and the West adds complexity. He allowed Russian forces to use Belarus for the 2022 Ukraine invasion, resulting in Western sanctions. While aligned with Vladimir Putin, Lukashenko seeks to ease repression and court Western favor, possibly aiming for sanctions relief if the Ukraine war ends.
Recent prisoner releases, labeled as humanitarian pardons, hint at attempts to thaw relations. However, opposition leader Tsikhanouskaya calls these moves a calculated ploy to gain leverage with the West. Despite these gestures, arrests persist, and full democratic reform remains elusive.
As Lukashenko enters his seventh term, his maneuvering between Russia and the West will define Belarus's geopolitical trajectory. The outcome of peace talks on Ukraine could open a window for Lukashenko to recalibrate Belarus's position on the world stage.